Mark Helprin is not known as an alarmist, especially among policy wonks throughout the political-military establishment. He currently resides as a senior fellow at the Claremont Institute in California. Known for his prescient insights into foreign policy and conflict resolution, his current analysis on Beijing’s war aims is frightening.
“The United States and China are on a collision course in the Western Pacific. Beijing is poised to project ever greater power, the U.S. doesn’t appear up to the challenge. Far sooner than we anticipated, China will achieve effective military parity in Asia. As of this writing Beijing possesses conventional and nuclear parity with the West.”
This is significant, for America alone is capable of thwarting tyrannic regimes. We are now faced with a scenario that resembles WWII: addressing large scale conflicts on multiple fronts.
Helprin reveals a good deal of what to expect as the battle commences: “China will rally tactical nuclear weapons, fighter planes, surface combatants, submarines, space surveillance as well as antisubmarine warfare capacity, carrier battle groups and fleet missile defense. As of this writing China is on the cusp of being able to field conventional satellites, swarms of miniature satellites, and networked surface, undersea, and aerial cuing for real time terminal guidance with which to direct its 1,500 short-range ballistic missiles to the five or six American air craft carriers in the Pacific.”
With the western Pacific cleared of American presence, our allies in the Pacific will collapse. Japan, South Korea, Southwest Asia, Australia, New Zealand will strike a bargain to avoid being assaulted. Beijing’s arrangement will be that our allies in the Pacific rid themselves of American bases. China will then move to the center of the Pacific, then east, with its primary diplomatic focus the acquisition of bases and raw materials in South and Central America.
China’s military posture is to keep American carrier battle groups beyond effective range. Had we built more carriers, provided them with sufficient missile defense and not neglected antisubmarine warfare we would not be in our current position.
What Helprin strains to make clear is that Beijing’s political regime is dangerously expansionist and Marxist to its core. Either the West, with America leading addresses this impending conflict early or we rest allowing this murderous ideology the offensive.
The immediate future is clear to see: the cultural, military, economic and social trajectories of both Beijing’s leadership and the United States are irreconcilable.
This conflict is brewing. Either the United States faces it or we succumb. Absolutely none of this was inevitable, but the American people and its elected officials have freely chosen policies that have thwarted the forward moving march of liberty so graciously crafted by previous leaders.