Immigration, Demography & The Maintanence Of Superpower Status

I’ve written about the social and political impact of plummiting demography in Israel and Russia.  This quick post will put into relief the impact of falling demography in ‘ascendant economies’ like China, Russia, Brazil etc. . .

The Unites States now has 20 people aged 65 or older for every 100 citizens working.  This is only a small uptick from 18 per 100.  Wait, it gets worse in Western Europe.

Currently, Germany has 33 for every 100.  By 2030 Germany will have 48 per 100.  That means there will be two workers for every retiree.  Japan has the worst:  currently its 35 per 100; but by 2030 it will be 55 per 100 retiree.

All the talk of China being a Superpower is completely misplaced.  It continues to have a very low fertility rate similar to Brazil, Iran, South Korea and most of Western Europe.

How else to say it:  these rising nations will get old before they get rich!

How is this possible?  Each nations workforce is projected to shrink drastically while the United States is expected to grow by nearly 40%, and this does not take into effect the increase (by orders of magnitude) digtial technology will have on our own emerging economy.

Immigration presents the single most important long term advantage for the Anglosphere, if we manage it well.

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About William Holland

Systematic Theologian/International Relations
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