I know it sounds unrealistic, but what we are witnessing rise throughout the Near East is the final battle for the existence of Israel.
How did we get here?
The regional powers throughout the Near East and Persia are brutal realists. They live through the prism of expressed power. They know that team Obama is not strong. They’ve read the calculus of American resolve throughout the region and have taken to dismantling Israel. Albeit slowly.
Testing both Washington and Jerusalem, Iranian proxies have launched 116 rockets and 55 mortar shells since October, 120 alone since Saturday. This is Hamas testing the resolve of both Israel and Washington. The key player here is Cairo. But more on that later.
The Sunni-Shiite proxy conflict that has dominated the Near East since 2008 could be swallowed up in favor of turning on Israel. My guess is that Israel and its allies throughout the region will not permit this ‘turn’ from happening.
What does a win look like here?
Israel can gain advantage against Iranian proxies through Cairo. It is by advancing the agenda of the Sunni’s that Israel can in effect buy time; the only problem is that this remains a very short time frame. What is required here is major resolve by American leadership. Short of that, what we will witness rise throughout the Near East is permanent limited engagement seeking to exhaust both American resolve and Israel. It could work, especially given the current nature of Democracies and Parliaments, our fiscal weakness, 24 hour news cycles etc. . . All of this works against us. The Son’s of Ishmael have no such concerns.
The fault line running here is the final defeat of Israel, the humiliation of American resolve and the emergence of and Islamic Caliphate.
It won’t end unless the American Imperium rises.