The end of Ramadan saw Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei blame the U.S. for Islamic terror. In their eyes, it is the west and its alliance regime responsible for the rise of terror attacks throughout Iraq, Istanbul, Bangladesh, Yemen and elsewhere. This occurred when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry seeks open (public) ratification of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with Iran. Given how Iran is a state sponsor of global terrorism, these diametrically opposed views are irreconcilable. Except to those who reside in unassailable positions, those protected from reality. Like the President Obama and the legions of cohorts within this administration that openly sought Iranian accommodation. They live in the dream world of utopian policy claims. The rest of us live, earn a living in the trenches of reality.
The disconnect will have profound strategic consequences.
As of this writing, the open border between Iran and Iraq favors the recently paid paramilitary agents of the Iranian regime. Effectively, Iraq is dominated by Shia, Iran has succeeded in openly subverting the order won by U.S. allies in 2008. The result is that Shiite sectarianism, actively promoted by Iranian agents, is the key driver of Sunni extremism. The insurrection that is the Islamic state is feed by Sunni grievances exacerbated by Iranian subversion. Aghast, the Obama administrations Iraq policy has substituted American boots with Iranian ones. And this after the win trekked out by Petraeus & Bush in 2008.
The Syrian albatross killing over 250,000 people is clearly a human rights catastrophe, yet Iran continues to train, arm, pay and solicit Shia agents from Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan in assisting Iran to bolster al-Assad’s regime. Why? Because the Iranians view Syria as the pillar of resistance in its northern front against Israel.
The Iranians have openly challenged Saudi hegemony by actively deploying agents in Bahrain (eastern Saudi Arabia) and Yemen, effectively encircling the Saudi’s. The indigenous Shia Houthi movement in Yemen requires robust counter-insurgency, a social military platform Arab civilization does not perform. Given its permanently weakened industrial base, weak oil prices and draining reserves, the Saudi’s are threatened having been abandoned by the White House.
Seeking to permanently threaten the House of Saud, the Iranians have sought to flank the Saudi’s only regional ally, Pakistan. Training legions of Shia throughout Pakistan while soliciting Islamabad’s longterm ally the Taliban, Iran is playing a very long game.
All of this begs the question: why drop off $400 million dollars in foreign currency reserves in secret to the Mullahs? The answer may reside in the very dissonance embodied by the Obama administration.
Tehran has been emboldened to assert international hegemony in subversion. It is winning. Today it remains active in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen arming Assad, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi and Iraqi Shia militias. It actively seeks to destabilize every relation it touches. It even works in collusion with other dominant powers like Russia to achieve its aims.
The unintended consequences of this deadly rapprochement have yet to unfold. Emerging contours are closer relations between Israel and the House of Saud, even Egypt’s al-Sisi regime actively shares intelligence with Jerusalem as Iranian proxies engage Sudan, Gaza achieving tactical dominance throughout the Philadelphia corridor into Israel proper. The Israeli’s actively promote antiballistic missile defenses while intercepting and killing Iranian agents throughout Golan.
I’m beginning to think that John Podhoretz was right, we’re going to have to confront this monster at some point in the very near future. A more robust and nuclear armed Iran will be a deadly mission for any U.S. President.
The dissonance fervently underwriting the Obama administration believes that Iran is to be viewed as if if were a traditional Westphalian nation state. It isn’t. It never was. The Iranian regime should be understood from the Revolution (1979) as a repudiation of western secular norms.
The Great Satan is growing a Great Satan. As Podhoretz said, its either conventional war now or nuclear war later.