The “Cross of Gold Speech” of Jennings favored an inflation based policy mix on silver denominated monetary growth (velocity) to entice farmers and other lumpen to enjoy the fruits of government intervention. It failed. It wasn’t that people wanted price stability, they wanted to be left alone with all monies tied to gold. Their is a sound chance the American polity is returning to this 19th century mileiu with profound institutional, cultural and social changes in American domestic finance.
In my view, team Trump is positioned to favorably alter the American strategic landscape unseen since Reagan. None of this bodes well for transnational investment banks, highly leveraged firms with redundant supply chains to heavily Keynesian dependent teaching institutions; they’ll all fail.
Here’s why: the change driving U.S. industrial, monetary policy is social and technological. You’ve got to compete on a flattened terrain that is mobile, iconic, abstract and capital intensive (human capital). That means favoring capital over debt, it means open violent policy confrontation with unions and schools and other institutionalized adult job programs like defense. Growth on this scale is magnitude. And it begins with tax reform, monetary reform and federalism. It means government isn’t a competitor to civil society or our extended order.
All of this is dependent on policy, political philosophy and leadership, something the GOP is familiar with. In a sentence: U.S. industrial policy dependencies on depreciation, and border adjustments is over. We can’t invite reluctant nation states to join a Bretton-Woods-like monetary/economic system that’s broken or massively inefficient like the one we have. If anything, a move toward a stronger dollar matching robust domestic policy will put everyone else on notice. It means putting in jeopardy Europe’s migrant crisis, it means putting on notice entire failed/lazy political classes in Mexico, Japan et al. . that they better get their own house in order IF they are to truly compete.
It means an end to capital flight.
Why will so many other nation states fail. Their political structure isn’t a Republic. Does anyone really think Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience the most rapid labor force growth on the planet? And what of their exchange rates, productivity, social base and teaching institutions? Don’t they matter? Does anyone really believe the Saudi’s will continue to liberalize after the low hanging fruits of their efforts ends? Can China continue to add 1.7 million workers per month to their labor force as they did from 1978 -2011?; Asia, geographically and historically a maze of Malthusian competition hasn’t reformed itself outside racketeering of chaebon, will it?
The most important social, political and technological developments will happen in America’s interior. Why? In a word: polity and the social, geopolitical consequences of being a world island.
Hold on, and get ready for take off. Its morning again in America.