The Iranian currency is falling, measuring close to Zimbabwe and Venezuela. The exchange rate between the rial and the dollar stands at about 60,000 to 1. No regime can stand that kind of domestic turmoil, in fact the mullah’s have long since destroyed the social fabric of Persian society. The rampant social pathologies are similar to Weimar, yet the vice grip the mullah’s have over their country prevents this reality from being reported. In a sentence, the regime of ruling theocrats has failed but nothing can yet be born to replace it. This ought to be the very kind of policy the U.S. needs, a Reaganite support of dissidents throughout Iran.
Currently, the regime suffers from economic collapse, again, a measure of support evidencing the regimes exhaustion. But the mullah’s never resign, never give up and so they live by repressing their own people. The other overt policy failures are international overextension and domestic dissent.
Only a totalitarian polity could survive this onslaught.
The U.S. wants out of the Iranian deal, but France and Germany want the U.S. to remain. My anticipation is that team Trump will dump any/all pretensions supporting Paris or Berlin. The fact is simple: the weak hand of Macron & Merkel has long since been exposed. Both leaders screened for Tehran, they should be left abandoned to Iranian wiles. If realism has any hold of either Euro leader they will seek comity with the U.S. and strike harder at Iran, first by openly supporting Israeli strategic gains against Iranian outposts in Syria, secondly, by openly supporting a harder line against Iran via team Trump.
Iran always sought to peel off European leadership from American orbit. This evidences a long serious decline in European hard power, something Poland, Hungary and legions of small nation states throughout the Balkans and Eastern Europe implicitly know. Just watch how Turkish expansion riles Euro leadership.
Its time for a hard bargain against Iran.
Remember, Roosevelt: “preparing for war is the most effective way to preserve peace.”