Last weekends failed coup is testimony to a dire freneticism that splits entire social classes throughout Islamic civilization, for even Republics are beholden to ideals easily exploited. This is now on display throughout Turkey in its coup recovery. How Erdogan’s political class divides to unite will outline Turkish geopolitical trajectory for years to come. Fault lines are growing because of Turkey’s ability to stride west Asia’s entry into Europe. It shares a border with Iran in its eastern corridor, but its southern border with Syria remains fluid, while Kurdish ambitions grow.
As of this writing, Turkey’s diplomatic class is ready to use its nominal NATO status as leverage against the U.S. What should team Obama do? Simple. Get Ankara’s attention by moving our nuclear deterrent off Incirlik to Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan. Demand that Erdogan start acting like a Republic. Pursuing personal, social and political vendettas against media, political activists, judges and military personnel makes Turkey look small.
If anything, the unintended consequences of a failed coup will mean that Erdogan’s recent reversal of authoritarian power is permanently put on hold. The deep-state is in overdrive.
Why? Turkey is currently reeling from high inflation, very low FDI, a halting economy; all while witnessing accelerating attacks from the Islamic State. The Turkish Army currently battles Kurdish guerrillas throughout its soft southern flank while pushing Syrian refugees northwest toward the Bosphorus.
Sadly, this failed coup will put off the bitter reckoning Erdogan’s failed policies have procured. The shortsightedness of the coup planners has damaged much more than Turkey.
A wholesale political purge is underway, so is the beckoning that Muslim autocrats desperately love.