It isn’t hard to see that the Mullahs are showing signs of panic, now would be a good time to hit Iran given its proclivity towards domestic unrest and real poverty.
Throughout Persia, the tentacles of Iran have taken to organizing rival exercises. We call this repression!
Domestically, Iranian citizens are selling off every/anything of value now that the Rial (national currency) is dead. To this effect, the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei has broken his tradition of seclusion and embarked on a tour of several provinces hoping to calm the panic. It’s a dry run for the intelligence agencies to identify immediate domestic threats.
Here’s the bad news: no one fears a US invasion.
Iran is severely weak. It anticipates Ahmadinejad’s guru Esfandiar Rahim Mashai to win over Khamenei loyalists. Make no mistake, Mashai is a ‘cut-out’ for Ahmadinejad.
But the true source for Iranian panic is a near-permanent fractured civil society exhausted from the ‘revolution from above’. The flight of capital, currency disruption and ever deepening despondency makes the political landscape fragile for any regime.
The Arab Spring has left them vulnerable to encirclement. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is isolated and Sunni dominated petro-monarchies dominate both the region and the monetary framework from which to topple the Mullahs. Teheran’s response is to seek encirclement of the west analogous to how the Soviets encircled Reagan in Central America.
Teheran’s weakness is felt in Lebanon for its proxies have found new patrons. Hamas which controls Gaza, seeks an alliance with Morsi’s Egypt through opening Persian ports in southern Sudan softening the Philadelphia corridor into southern Israel proper. The Jordanians, Qatari’s and the House of Saud all seek to peel traditional Persian proxies off from Teheran into their own orbit. If anything, we should expect these wily proxies to master the realists Monarchies, but much remains to be seen since both sides are die hard Machiavellian realists.
Iran has also lost influence in Iraq given Baghdad’s decision to field an opposing candidate for OPEC secretary general.
How will this round end?
We should expect those at State to misread the political typography of Iran, rescuing the Mullah’s from encirclement through direct talks. That would immediately put FIVE Security Council resolutions out of play for an indefinite period of time.
If the Mullahs offer the resolution of talks, then we’ve been played.